US-China trade deal chances ‘not very good:’ Gordon Chang


MORE FROM LONDON WHY BUCKINGHAM PALACE AS WE GET THEM I WANT TO TURN NOW TO TRADE. TURNING TO TRADE TENSIONS WITH CHINA MEXICO THE WOJTS REPORTING BOTH COUNTRIES ARE WILLING TO NEGOTIATE, MEXICO’S PRESIDENT SAYS MOMENTS AGO HE SAID HE BELIEVES THAT TWO COUNTRIES MEXICO AND U.S. WILL BE ABLE TO REACH A DEAL BUT ON THE CHINA FRONT MANY ARE WAITING TO SEE WHAT COMES FROM DWI G20 THIS MONTH AGO JOINING US HE COMINGS COLLAPSE OF CHINA AUTHOR GORDON CHANG I AM READING A TWEET SOMEBODY SENT YOUR REACTION, YOU HAVE TO SUNDAY A LITTLE MORE POSITIVE THIS IS TO ME ON CHINA WE ALL KNOW THAT ONCE THE CHINA DEAL IS DONE MARKET WILL TAKE OFF LIKE A ROCKETSHIP WHAT ARE CHANCES TRADE DEAL DONE WITH CHINA.>>IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT TODAY?>>PROBABLY NOT VERY GOOD.>>YOU ONLY HAVE ONE MORE OFF-RAMP DAGEN THE G20 MEETING WHERE TRUMP MEETS XI JINPING BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE STAFF WORK FOR THAT, NOW, TWO BIG GUYS IN A ROOM ALMOST ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. BUT THERE ARE POLITICA BUT THERE ARE INLITICA BUT THERE ARE INHITICA BUT THERE ARE INHIBICA BUT THERE ARE INHIBITIONS ON BOTH SIDES ARGUING AGAINST THOSE MARKETS CONSISTENTLY ARE IGNORED CONSIDERATIONS MARKET CAN TAKE OFF ON ANY BIT OF NEWS I THINK PROBABLY NOT IS GOING TO BE FUNDAMENTALLY SUSTAINED.>>NO DOUBT XAIFRNZ BETWEEN PARALLEL THREAT OF TARIFFS WITH MEXICO 25% TARIFF WITH CHINA HEARING THM SAY OPENING TO A DEAL I CAN’T IMAGINE WOULD HAVE INFLUENCE ON CHINESE IF WE COME TO SOME AGREEMENT IN MEXICO, THE CHINESE COULD STILL HOLD OUT MAKE THIS PAINFUL.>>IT IS CERTAINLY — BUT THERE IS ONE CONNECTION, THERE, THAT IS, YOU KNOW, WE’RE TRYING TO DISGAGE TWO I THINK TRUMP IS TRYING TO DO THAT BRING IN FACTORS BACK INTO U.S. BUT EVEN IF WE DON’T BRING THE FACTORIES BACK INTO U.S. THERE IS IMPORTANT ADVANCIN ADVANTAGE CENTRAL AMERICAS STABILIZE CENTRAL AMERICA YOU DON’T HAVE CARAVANS COMING UP TO SOUTHERN BORDER SO THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR US, AND WE’RE STARTING TO GET INDICATIONS FROM PEOPLE THAT FACTORIES ARE THINKING ABOUT CENTRAL AMERICA THEY DON’T SEE LONG TERM REAL SOLUTION YEAH THERE COULD BE A TRADE DEAL BETWEEN CHINA AND U.S. BUT IT AIN’T GOING TO HOLD.>>THE TARIFF THREAT AGAINST MEXICO IS ABOUT IMMIGRATION, AND THAT IS WHAT MADE PEOPLE’S HEADS EXPLODE.>>RIGHT.>>BECAUSE AGAIN, IT IS NOT ABOUT THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA IT IS ABOUT THEIR THEFT FORCED SURRENDER OF TECHNOLOGY ALSO ABOUT TRADE BALANCE THIS IS ABOUT IMMIGRATION, YOU THINK TARIFFS COULD DO SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAT WAS WHY PEOPLE% PLEXED –>>WTO VIOLATION ON OUR PART YOU KNOW, I THINK TRUMP REALLY DOES HAVE AN IMPORTANT POINT MEXICO IS ALLOWING THIS TO OCCUR. YOU GOT TO STOP SOMEHOW I DON’T LIKE USE OF TARIFFS TO DO THAT BUT SOME WAY MEXICO HAS GOT TO GET REALISTIC. GORDON.>>ON THE CHINESE SIDE WE KNOW WHAT THEIR DETRACTORS FOR TRADE DEAL ARE HERE LARGELY POLITICAL BUT WHAT ARE THE POLITICAL WINDS IN CHINA AGAINST MAKING ANY KIND OF TRADE DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES.>>XI JINPING RIGHT NOW HAS AN ECONOMY THAT IS NOT DOING VERY WELL WE CAN TALK ABOUT WHERE IT IS BUT THE POINT IS HE NEEDS SOMEBODY TO BLAME. ALSO IF HE MAKES THE CONCESSIONS REMEMBER HE OWNS THIS TRADE CONFLICT IN BEIJING IF HE GIVES IMPORTANT SKENGS TO U.S. PEOPLE WILL BLAME HIM THE CHINESE SYSTEM DEINSTITUTIONALIZED YOU COULD LOSE JOB FREEDOM YOU COULD LOSE EVEN MORE XI JINPING HAS A LOT OF INCENTIVES NOT TO DO A TRADE AERODYNAMICALLIE A TRADE DERODYNAMICALLIE A TRADE DEALDYNAMICALLIE A TRADE DEAL HNAMICALLIE A TRADE DEAL HISMICALLIE A TRADE DEAL HISTOCALLIE A TRADE DEAL HISTORILLIE A TRADE DEAL HISTORICAIE A TRADE DEAL HISTORICALE A TRADE DEAL HISTORICAL WROTE OUT OF BEIJING LAST MONTH.>>IT IS WIND OF A LITTLE BIT NICER?>>OOH ONLY THE — WASHINGTON JOURNAL OPTIMISTIC LOOK AT THE WHITE PAPER IT IS PRETTY HARD LINE.>>WE ARE WILLING TO ADOPT A COOPERATIVE APPROACH ON SOLUTIONS TO IS VERY COMMERCE SECRETARY.>>BLAH, BLAH, BLAH BLAH.>>I AM NOT NEGATIVE, YOU ARE LOOKING AT THIS LIKE A GAME YOU HAVE TALKED A FEW THINGS NOT JUST TRADE BUT IMMIGRATIONS, THREE STEPS AHEAD RIGHT.>>THE DEMOCRATS CERTAINLY AREN’T LOOKING AT IT THAT WAY NO OTHER PRESIDENT HAS WANT TO TAKE THESE ISSUES ON, BECAUSE THEY DON’T WANT THE SHORT-TERM THING OF IT HOW DO YOU THINK IT IMPACTS PRESIDENT TRUMP INTO 2020.>>I THINK IT IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD FOR HIM FIRST OF ALL, NOT GETTING THAT MUCH CRITICISM FROM FOR INSTANCE CHUCK SCHUMER AND OTHERS, BECAUSE YOU KNOW CHINA HAS NOW BECOME A BAD ACTOR, SO THEY JUST DON’T HAVE THE FRIENDS THEY ONCE DID I THINK THAT YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, THE RISKS FOR TRUMP ARE GOING TO BE SORT OF TRADE DEAL WHERE HE GETS CONCESSIONS TO CHINA YOU GOT TO REMEMBER, YOU KNOW, WHEN VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN SAID CHINA IS NO COMPETITION, HE TOOK A LOT OF FLACK, I THINK YOU KNOW PRESIDENT TRUMP SAW THAT SAID LOOK, IF I DO A DEAL, HE IS GOING TO BE IN THE FIRING LINE SO I DON’T THINK FOR HIM THERE IS SORT OF LIKE A BIG INCENTIVE TO DO A DEAL.>>GOREDON GOO>>GORED O GOO>>GORED O>>GOREDO>>GORED O>>GOREDON — GORDON GOOD TO SEE YOU FINGERS CROSSED.>>SO WE DO NOT END UP IN A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE ANOTHER AGREEMENT THAT THE CHINESE VIOLATE BUY MORE TIME STEAL MORE U.S. TECHNOLOGY COMMIT MORE TRADE VIOLATIONS

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